1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2022	291845	Three Sisters	Current	720	7.84	6.16	2.67
			Estimated	400	7.33	5.83	2.42

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
Three Sisters is a strategic roll-and-write game about backyard farming. Three Sisters is named after an indigenous agricultural technique still widely used today in which three different crops — in this case, pumpkins, corn, and beans — are planted close together. Corn provides a lattice for beans to climb, the beans bring nitrogen from the air into the soil, and the squash provides a natural mulch ground cover to reduce weeds and keep pests away. In the game, you have your own player sheet with multiple areas: the garden, which is divided into six numbered zones, each containing the three crop types; the apiary; compost; perennials; goods; fruit; and the shed, which is filled with tools that have special abilities. All the crops, fruits, flowers, and hives are represented by tracks that you will mark off as you acquire these items. Many of the tracks are interconnected with other elements in the game, giving you bonuses along the way. A common feature of these tracks are circles that represent a harvest, which generates goods; get enough goods, and you unlock bonus actions. Advancing on all of these tracks offers various amounts of points, advancements, and bonuses. The game lasts eight rounds. Each round, roll dice based on the number of players, group them by number, then place them on an action space of the circular action wheel, starting with the current position of the farmer; the farmer moves each round, which means that dice showing 1s, 2s, etc. will end up on different spaces each round. Once the dice have been placed, each player drafts one die and uses it as described below. Once everyone has drafted a die, all players get to use the lowest-valued die remaining on the action wheel. A die lets you do two things, which you can do in either order: Plant or water the numbered zone matching the value of the die. Take the action of the space from which you removed the die. To plant, you mark the bottom space of two empty crop tracks. (Note that you can't plant beans until the corn adjacent to the beans is tall enough to support them.) To water, you mark one space in all the crop tracks that already have at least one mark in them. As for the actions on the action wheel, you can: Plant or water again in the same numbered zone. Gain one compost (which lets you adjust die values) and four goods (which will get you bonuses at the farmer's market). Mark off the hive track, which can bring you points, goods, or bonus actions. Mark one of the four fruit tracks. Each fruit is worth different points and different amounts of goods and has different track lengths and circle positions. Visit the farmer's market, which gives you points and bonuses based on the number of goods you've collected. Mark one of the fifteen tool tracks in your shed. As soon as you complete a track, you gain that power or end-game scoring opportunity. Perennials don't have a direct action associated with them and are marked off only through actions in other areas, with the various perennials giving different bonuses as you mark them. At the end of the round, all players receive a bonus action, either rain that waters all numbered zones in your garden, a trip to the shed, or a visit to the farmer's market. After eight rounds, you score points for harvested crops, perennials, the apiary, fruit, and some shed items. Whoever has the most points wins. Three Sisters has a solo mode in which you try to top your own score against an "opponent" that drafts dice and blocks areas of your sheet.

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/291845

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to Three Sisters? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to Three Sisters. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to Three Sisters. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	291845	Three Sisters	1.00	6.16	7.84	2.42	720
1	2014	150926	Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age	0.94	5.96	6.62	2.24	1,223
2	2007	27710	Catan Dice Game	0.90	5.62	5.70	1.24	5,712
3	2018	245961	Fleet: The Dice Game	0.89	6.84	7.74	2.58	2,613
4	2019	270836	Imperial Settlers: Roll & Write	0.89	5.93	6.37	1.77	1,855
5	2020	316546	Clever Cubed	0.89	6.51	7.62	2.52	1,635
6	2020	315291	Everything Lost	0.88	5.55	8.24	2.33	36
7	2017	232524	Welcome to Dino World	0.88	6.01	6.87	2.27	1,057
8	2019	269210	Twice as Clever!	0.87	7.05	7.49	2.35	6,645
9	2017	232988	The Castles of Burgundy: The Dice Game	0.87	6.43	6.90	1.83	3,482
10	2014	167828	Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age with Mediterranean Expansion	0.87	5.68	6.94	2.29	250
11	2019	284825	Florenza Dice Game	0.86	5.68	6.86	2.87	288
12	2018	244522	That's Pretty Clever!	0.86	7.41	7.61	1.88	18,627
13	2020	306577	Der Clou: Roll & Heist	0.86	5.56	8.02	2.20	77
14	2020	267009	Rome & Roll	0.85	5.93	6.96	3.35	723
15	2016	206931	Encore!	0.85	6.52	6.99	1.17	4,007
16	2020	266188	Seven Bridges	0.84	5.74	7.58	2.50	264
17	2019	267568	HexRoller	0.83	5.72	6.30	1.17	713
18	2016	193210	Dice Stars	0.82	5.98	6.67	1.33	1,248
19	2017	221263	Space Invaders Dice!	0.81	5.50	5.64	1.00	123
20	2008	37380	Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age	0.80	6.68	6.87	1.78	11,754
21	2012	131260	Qwixx	0.80	6.67	6.87	1.11	11,148
22	2019	284054	Smoothies	0.80	5.61	6.45	1.80	239
23	2016	195528	La Granja: No Siesta	0.79	6.24	6.80	2.19	2,282
24	2015	180198	Rolling America	0.79	5.91	6.35	1.54	1,671
25	2019	286309	UNO Dice Game	0.79	5.48	5.15	1.00	49

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to Three Sisters while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2022	291845	Three Sisters	6.16	1.00	6.16	7.84	2.42	720
1	2018	244522	That's Pretty Clever!	6.40	0.86	7.41	7.61	1.88	18,627
2	2019	269210	Twice as Clever!	6.17	0.87	7.05	7.49	2.35	6,645
3	2018	245961	Fleet: The Dice Game	6.12	0.89	6.84	7.74	2.58	2,613
4	2020	316546	Clever Cubed	5.76	0.89	6.51	7.62	2.52	1,635
5	2017	232988	The Castles of Burgundy: The Dice Game	5.62	0.87	6.43	6.90	1.83	3,482
6	2014	150926	Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age	5.58	0.94	5.96	6.62	2.24	1,223
7	2016	206931	Encore!	5.55	0.85	6.52	6.99	1.17	4,007
8	2008	37380	Roll Through the Ages: The Bronze Age	5.38	0.80	6.68	6.87	1.78	11,754
9	2012	131260	Qwixx	5.36	0.80	6.67	6.87	1.11	11,148
10	2018	245654	Railroad Ink: Deep Blue Edition	5.35	0.77	6.94	7.24	1.48	9,672
11	2020	227224	The Red Cathedral	5.31	0.74	7.19	7.83	2.80	5,147
12	2017	232524	Welcome to Dino World	5.29	0.88	6.01	6.87	2.27	1,057
13	2019	270836	Imperial Settlers: Roll & Write	5.25	0.89	5.93	6.37	1.77	1,855
14	2018	251678	Railroad Ink: Blazing Red Edition	5.10	0.76	6.73	7.15	1.42	5,393
15	2020	267009	Rome & Roll	5.06	0.85	5.93	6.96	3.35	723
16	2007	27162	Kingsburg	5.05	0.72	7.02	7.19	2.43	18,903
17	2007	27710	Catan Dice Game	5.04	0.90	5.62	5.70	1.24	5,712
18	2016	195528	La Granja: No Siesta	4.96	0.79	6.24	6.80	2.19	2,282
19	2020	284584	Troyes Dice	4.95	0.79	6.25	7.11	2.32	1,554
20	2019	251412	On Tour	4.95	0.76	6.53	7.03	1.48	3,802
21	2014	167828	Roll Through the Ages: The Iron Age with Mediterranean Expansion	4.93	0.87	5.68	6.94	2.29	250
22	2019	284825	Florenza Dice Game	4.91	0.86	5.68	6.86	2.87	288
23	2020	315291	Everything Lost	4.89	0.88	5.55	8.24	2.33	36
24	2016	193210	Dice Stars	4.88	0.82	5.98	6.67	1.33	1,248
25	2020	266188	Seven Bridges	4.85	0.84	5.74	7.58	2.50	264

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2022	291845	Three Sisters	Motor City Gameworks	Ben Pinchback	Marlies Barends	Dice	Crowdfunding: Kickstarter	Dice Rolling
			25th Century Games	Matt Riddle	Beth Sobel	Farming	Mechanism: Roll-and-Write	Paper-and-Pencil
							Theme: Gardening	Rondel
								Solo / Solitaire Game

Individual Game Analysis